Vatican and Russia resume diplomacy after five-year silence amid Ukraine conflict

Archbishop Paul Gallagher, the Vatican’s foreign minister, held a significant meeting with Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, in Moscow. This event marks the end of a five-year diplomatic silence between the Vatican and Russia, focusing on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The meeting is seen as a potential step towards thawing relations, which may influence discussions on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The Vatican’s involvement is notable given its historical role as a mediator in international conflicts. Key Takeaways The meeting between Vatican’s Archbishop Gallagher and Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow suggests a potential shift in diplomatic dynamics concerning the Ukraine conflict. Market pricing for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, has increased to 26.5% YES, up from 24% the previous day, suggesting a view that diplomatic efforts could lead to a ceasefire. The Vatican’s engagement may indicate an opening for further dialogue, aligning with increased market confidence in a ceasefire agreement. What to Watch Observers will be keen to see if this meeting leads to renewed talks involving key international actors, including Ukraine and ...