Why Bitcoin’s 63% HODL wave isn’t the mega bull signal everyone thinks it is

Bitcoin’s share of supply last moved at least one year ago reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo’s HODL-wave data.HODL waves group Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs into age bands based on their last on-chain movement. The rising one-year share therefore shows that more supply now sits in older bands. Current-month buying and deliberate withdrawal from the market require separate evidence.The underlying bands point to a specific mechanism. Coins that last moved roughly a year ago can enter the one-to-two-year bracket simply by remaining still long enough to cross the boundary.What Bitcoin HODL waves measureThe one-to-two-year band increased to 14.57% of supply from 13.52% between Aug. 18 and Sept. 18, a gain of 1.05 percentage points. That was the largest positive change among the cohorts already older than one year.Over the same period, the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%. Glassnode’s Sept. 18 snapshot showed the same latest values for both bands.The paired moves are consistent with coins crossing the one-year boundary. Each band is a net share after coins age into it, age out of it or move on-chain...