Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz traffic

## Market Snapshot

Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15 is currently priced at 0.2% YES, down from 1% yesterday and 9% a week ago. The probability of 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 is priced at 44% YES, a decrease from 45% over the last 24 hours and significantly down from 84% a week ago.

## Key Takeaways

– Satellite imagery indicates a halt in Iran’s crude exports, consistent with the impact of US sanctions. – Markets suggest decreased likelihood of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic resuming by mid-May. – Continued blockade and sanctions are consistent with reduced ship transits in the Strait of Hormuz.

## Article Body

Recent satellite imagery has confirmed that Iran’s primary crude export terminal on Kharg Island is inactive, with no seaborne oil exports reported over the past month. This development follows the intensification of US sanctions and a naval blockade initiated in April 2026, aimed at crippling Iran’s oil trade network. The imagery shows an oil slick covering approximately 45 square kilometers, suggesting potential infrastructure damage or overflow issues due to the blockade. The US has also targeted Iran’s financial channels and shadow fleet to further restrict revenue generation, putting significant economic pressure on Tehran. Kharg Island handles nearly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, making it a critical revenue source for the nation.

## Market Interpretation

The market response indicates a high impact from these developments on the “Strait of Hormuz traffic by May” and “Strait of Hormuz ship transit” markets. The current pricing is consistent with a scenario where traffic does not return to normal by May 15, with a decreased probability of significant ship transit by May 31. This suggests market participants view continued disruption as likely.

## What to Watch

Observers should monitor any diplomatic efforts or military developments involving the US and Iran that could alter the current blockade conditions. Statements from key actors such as Iranian and US officials could provide further indications of potential shifts in policy. Additionally, any updates on the status of Kharg Island’s infrastructure and oil export capabilities will be crucial in assessing future market movements.

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Strait of hormuz ship transit bearish

44% FLAT