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Israel’s largest oil refineries, located in Haifa, are projected to undergo repairs extending until 2028 following extensive damage from Iranian missile strikes. This development was reported amid ongoing military tensions between Israel and Iran, which have escalated since a joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran earlier in 2026. The strikes on the Haifa refineries—key assets supplying about half of Israel’s domestic fuel—are part of a broader conflict involving large-scale air operations and retaliatory actions targeting critical infrastructure. The ongoing conflict and the damage to Israel’s energy infrastructure appear consistent with scenarios that could diminish the likelihood of reaching a US-Iran deal in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- The extensive damage to Israel’s Haifa oil refineries from Iranian strikes suggests heightened military tensions may negatively impact US-Iran deal prospects.
- Market pricing reflects a decrease in confidence regarding the inclusion of Iran Reconstruction Funding in a US-Iran deal for 2026, with odds dropping from 42% to 39%.
- The sustained military operations against Israel’s energy infrastructure are consistent with pricing supportive of NO outcomes for ongoing negotiations.
What to Watch
The progression of repair efforts at the Haifa refineries and any further military escalations could influence market perceptions regarding a US-Iran deal. Key developments to monitor include statements from involved parties, such as U.S. and Iranian officials, and any potential diplomatic interventions by mediators. Observers should also consider how further infrastructure damage might impact negotiations and existing market odds, particularly in relation to the US-Iran deal’s content and timing.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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