Kalshi traders assign 66% chance of Trump impeachment before end of term

Prediction market traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives before January 1, 2028. The contract has drawn more than $2.76 million in total trading volume, making it one of the platform’s most actively traded political markets. That number has more than doubled since the market launched in November 2025, when traders pegged the odds at roughly 30%. The gap between impeachment and removal Impeachment, in constitutional terms, is essentially an indictment. The House votes to bring charges. Removal requires a conviction by the Senate, which demands a two-thirds supermajority. Kalshi runs a separate contract on whether Trump will actually be removed from office, whether through Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment. That market is trading at approximately 27%. For context, Trump was impeached twice during his first term, in 2019 and 2021. Both times, the Senate acquitted him. Why the odds surged The probability spiked above 70% in March 2026, coinciding with critical political developments around the 2026 midterm elections and escalating geopolitical tensions. One of the biggest dri...