Polymarket traders see 32% chance Anthropic leads 2026 IPOs

Odds that Anthropic tops SpaceX for the year's biggest listing fell from about 46% to 31.7% in a week A week ago, Polymarket traders thought Anthropic had close to a coin flip’s chance of pulling off 2026’s largest IPO. That optimism has cooled. The AI company’s odds of claiming the title now sit at 31.7%, down from about 46% one week earlier. Traders are increasingly betting that SpaceX, which already went public this year, will keep the crown. The numbers behind the slide The Polymarket contract asks a simple question: which company will have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026? More than $7.4 million has been traded on it so far. SpaceX holds a commanding lead, priced at a 65% to 66.5% probability as of Nov. 4, 2026. Anthropic’s odds have moved within a range of 27.8% to 31.7%, depending on the snapshot. The decline lines up with Anthropic’s public paperwork. The company filed its Form S-1 with the SEC on Oct. 26, 2026, for a Nasdaq debut under the ticker ANT. What the S-1 revealed Anthropic reported $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026. The bottom line looks very different. Anthropic posted a net loss of $80.7 billion for the same period, a figure driven by non...