Russia ships record oil volumes but revenue falls to $1.9B per week in June

Russia is pumping oil out of its ports at the fastest pace since the war in Ukraine began, and somehow making less money doing it.

Seaborne crude exports hit 4.13 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to June 28, a wartime record according to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data. But the gross value of those shipments slid to roughly $1.9 billion per week, the lowest since March 2026.

More barrels, fewer dollars

Urals crude, Russia’s flagship export grade, dropped to between $45 and $59 per barrel in late June. That range effectively halved the value of Baltic cargo shipments compared to early May.

ESPO crude, Russia’s primary grade for Asian buyers, followed a similar trajectory downward.

Oil-at-sea volumes tell the story from a different angle. The total amount of Russian crude floating on tankers surged by roughly one-third from mid-April lows, reaching 133 million barrels by late June.

Global oil prices have been under sustained pressure, partly driven by renewed hopes for increased Middle East supply. A US-Iran interim agreement has markets pricing in more barrels from the Persian Gulf.

Drone strikes reshape the export mix

Ukrainian drone strikes hammered multiple Russian refineries throughout June, hitting facilities in the Moscow region and elsewhere.

When refineries go offline, crude that would normally be processed domestically gets rerouted to export terminals. Refined petroleum products like diesel and gasoline typically command higher prices than raw crude. By losing refinery capacity, Russia is forced to sell its lowest-value product at its lowest prices.

The shift also matters for global fuel markets. Less Russian refining means less Russian diesel and gasoline available for export, which can tighten fuel markets even as crude supplies increase.

What this means for markets and macro

Russia’s oil revenue is the backbone of its federal budget. OPEC+ has been wrestling with compliance issues among member states, and Russia flooding the market with cheap crude, even involuntarily, adds to the pressure on cartel discipline.

Western sanctions on Russian oil were designed to cap revenue, not volume. The current situation, where volume hits records while revenue falls, is arguably exactly what the sanctions architects intended.

The Urals crude spread to Brent remains the key metric to monitor. If that discount widens further from the $45-$59 range, Russia’s budget pressures intensify.

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