Susquehanna warns 8% of planned AI data center capacity could be canceled

A worst-case regulatory scenario after the 2026 midterms could wipe out approximately 12 GW of AI training capacity slated for 2028 to 2030 The AI infrastructure boom has been running on a simple assumption: build it, and the power, permits and politics will sort themselves out. Susquehanna Financial Group is now questioning that assumption. In an analysis released on November 6, 2026, the firm estimated that a worst-case regulatory scenario could cancel 8% of planned AI data center capacity in the US. The numbers behind the warning Susquehanna’s math starts with a large base. The firm puts the total pipeline of training-focused AI data center projects for 2025 through 2030 at an estimated 148 gigawatts. In the worst case, approximately 12 GW of that capacity, planned for the years 2028 to 2030, could be canceled outright. That 12 GW is the 8% figure. The bigger exposure sits one layer up. About 60 GW, roughly 40% of the total pipeline, is currently waiting on regulatory approvals and could face delays as a result. Susquehanna’s cancellation estimate represents 20% of that pending 60 GW. Why 2027 looks safe and 2028 does not The timing matters as much as the size. Susquehanna expec...